Posted by
tony on Thursday, December 28, 2006 9:35:53 PM
I recently read, and then re-read, the book "Meltdown" by Patrick Michaels. If you know about the book, you have guessed my leanings on the subject of global warming, that is, there is no human induced warming of the globe.
I'm still digesting everything Mr. Michaels has written and putting it into an argument I can present cogently, but the points made in the book are very compelling to me as a novice commenter on world events.
A summary of what I learned:
1. Carbon dioxide, the most concentrated of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, excepting water, comprise 0.038% of the atmosphere. Water vapor and droplets comprise 90%. Not much of a comparison.
2. Water and carbon dioxide have a very similar effect on global warming, and that effect is logarithmic, not linear or exponential. In everyday terms, this means that the MORE greenhouse gas you have, the less the incremental warming effect.
3. So, water accounts for the VAST majority of global warming attributed to greenhouse gases.
4. The first 0.002% of carbon dioxide (remember there is 0.038% by volume in the atmosphere) accounted for the first 1.45 degrees C of temperature rise attributed to carbon dioxide.
5. The next 0.026% of carbon dioxide accounted for the next 1.45 degree C rise. That gets us to 0.026% by volume in the atmosphere, and 2.9 degrees C rise.
6. And all this happened prior to 1940.
7. The next 0.01% carbon dioxide concentration increase, that contributed since 1940, accounted for 0.6 degrees C rise. A total of 3.5 degrees C rise due to CO2.
8. To double that effect - to rise the global temperature by another 3.5 degrees C due solely to CO2 concentration increase - would require an atmospheric concentration of 9% CO2. Which cannot happen, since we would be dead at 0.6% CO2.
9. Doubling the CO2 concentration from 0.038% to 0.076% would raise the temperature 0.006 degrees C... which could not even be measured with a thermometer.
Hmmm.
Now to go check all my numbers. This all came from my weak memory.